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Journal of Henan Agricultural University. 2022, (05)

An empirical analysis of the impact of pig epidemic on pork priceChinese Full TextEnglish Full Text (MT)

LI Wei;DANG Yuli;FANG Fang;XUE Qi;DU Xuefeng;College of Economics and Management, Henan Agricultural University;College of Science, Henan Agricultural University;College of International Education, Henan Agricultural University;

Abstract: 【Objective】Successive pig epidemics had huge impact on pork price.Accurately describing the transmission mechanism of pig epidemics to pork prices can provide theoretical and empirical evidence for stabilizing pork price and promoting the pig industrial development.【Method】The VAR model was constructed based on the monthly data of the relevant variables from March 2009 to September of 2020. The impact degree of pork price caused by the pig epidemic was empirically tested, and the source of pork price fluctuations was dynamically decomposed.【Result】（1） The pig epidemic significantly affected pork price.（2） The impact of the live pig epidemic on pork price lasted for a long time, making the pork price correction slow and long.【Conclusion】The pig epidemic prevention and control mechanism should be improved, the industrial chain traceability system should be established, and measures such as production capacity recovery and policy support should be strengthened to ensure the long-term stable development of the industry.
Keywords：

pig epidemic; pork price; conduction mechanism; VAR model;

  • DOI：

    10.16445/j.cnki.1000-2340.20220902.002

  • Series：

    (D) Agriculture; (J) Economics ＆ Management

  • Subject：

    Agriculture Economy; Market Research and Information

  • Classification Code：

    F323.7

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