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Journal of Henan Agricultural University. 2023, (01)

Impact of US trade policy uncertainty on the prices of livestock productsChinese Full TextEnglish Full Text (MT)

LI Hui;TANG Huacang;ZHANG Yuxiang;WANG Chunyang;XU Yuanyuan;College of Economics and Management, Henan Agricultural University;

Abstract: 【Objective】Systematic analysis was conducted on the transmission mechanism and effects of changes in US trade policy on the prices of livestock products in China.【Method】A multi-dimensional monthly data of major livestock product prices and US trade policy uncertainty index from February 2009 to July 2020 were used to construct a factorial incremental Vector Auto-Regressive model to measure the response of livestock product prices to US trade policy uncertainty.【Result】 The overall positive response of livestock prices to US trade policy uncertainty shocks is stronger in the first 5 periods, and the response weakens over time until it disappears after 5 periods. Among them, the response of pork prices is the strongest, and the response of raw milk grid lasts longer.【Conclusion】 US trade policy uncertainty acts on domestic livestock product prices through three channels: import quantities, import prices, and consumer price indices, and livestock product prices increase as the US trade policy uncertainty index rises. Among them, pork prices are most affected due to consumer preference and high dependence on foreign trade; raw milk prices are affected for a longer period of time due to the large amount of imports; chicken, beef, mutton and egg prices are relatively less affected by the uncertainty of US trade policy.
Keywords：

US trade policy uncertainty; China-US trade friction; livestock product price; FAVAR; impulse response; impact effect;

  • DOI：

    10.16445/j.cnki.1000-2340.20220902.001

  • Series：

    (D) Agriculture; (J) Economics ＆ Management

  • Subject：

    Agriculture Economy; Trade Economy; Market Research and Information

  • Classification Code：

    F323.7;F757.12

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